Plain-English supply & recession signals
What's happening to the world's supply of energy and goods — and what it means for prices, jobs, and your wallet.
Right now
The monthly-average Brent oil price is close to its 5-year average.
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz this week is running 93% below its pre-strikes (early 2026) pace.
Auto-generated from the data below — descriptions, not forecasts.
Brent oil (monthly avg)
83$/bbl
+17.5% vs a year earlier
as of July 2026
Ships through Hormuz (7-day avg)
4ships/day
as of 30 August 2026
China factory PMI (official)
49.0index
as of February 2026
Taiwan exports
75.3bn US$
+32.9% vs a year earlier
as of July 2026
South Korea exports
57.2bn US$
−1.3% vs a year earlier
as of May 2025
US yield curve (10y − 3m)
0.88pp
as of 3 September 2026
Global Supply Shock Index
how it's calculated100/100
Severe+8 pts vs previous monthScore for 2026-08 — literally: "more supply stress than 100% of all months since 2015".
Month by month since 2015
Full history back to 2015, the exact formula, and the backtest against known crises are on the methodology page.
Financial warning lights
all 6 lights & the slow burns0 of 6 warning lights are red right now, with 1 on watch. Most months look like this.
Your money — monthly living costs
What it costs an average household to cover the essentials each month, and how grocery, gas & utility prices compare in your metro — 2019 vs today, in dollars and hours of after-tax work.
Living costs around the world
Are wages keeping up with prices in Europe, Japan, India, and China? A squeeze meter per economy — and why their squeeze reaches your shelves months later.
Oil & your wallet
Prices now, and how shocks travel to the pump, freight, and food.
Asia shipping & ports
Daily satellite estimates of ships calling at Asia's biggest ports and passing key sea chokepoints — activity that leads official trade data by weeks.
Strait of Hormuz
Daily ship traffic through the world's most important oil chokepoint.
Recession signals & warning lights
Nine early-warning indicators — jobs, prices, and the money system — each with a green/amber/red read, plus three slow-burning risks we watch.
The engine room
Factories and exports in China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan.
What changed this week
A plain-English, auto-generated summary of the latest data moves.
Data status
Every source, its freshness, and its confidence level — honestly.
Common questions
What is the Global Supply Shock Index (GSSI)?
The GSSI is a 0–100 score combining four pillars — energy prices, shipping traffic, Asian manufacturing activity, and trade data — into a single reading of how stressed the world's supply chains are right now, compared with every month since 2015. Scores are grouped into bands: Normal, Elevated, High, and Severe.
What causes a global supply shock?
A global supply shock happens when a disruption — a war, a blocked shipping route, a factory shutdown, or an energy price spike — reduces the flow of goods or raw materials the world economy depends on. This site tracks it through real-time signals like oil prices, ship traffic through key chokepoints, and Asian factory output.
How is a supply shock different from a recession warning sign?
A supply shock describes disruption to the physical flow of energy and goods happening right now. A recession warning sign — like the Sahm rule or an inverted yield curve — is a signal about future economic activity, built from separate data like unemployment and interest rates. This site tracks both, because supply shocks often feed into the conditions that later trigger recession signals.
Is this site's data real-time?
No series on this site is claimed to be real-time. Each chart is labeled with its actual cadence — daily, weekly, or monthly — and its source's typical publication lag, so you always know exactly how current a number is.