GlobalSupplyShock

What changed this week

A short, plain-English summary of what moved in the numbers each week — generated automatically from the data itself, not written by a person or an AI. Every line traces back to a real number on this site. The dot before each line is colored green when it's good news, red when it's bad, gray when it's neither.

Week of 27 Jul 2026

data as of 28 July 2026
  • Brent oil (monthly average) was down 20.6% month-over-month in 2026-06, to 85.4 $/barrel.
  • Brent oil (daily) is up 16.8% over the past week, to 87.0 $/barrel as of 2026-07-20.
  • Ships through the Strait of Hormuz are up 11.1% over the past week, to 10.0 ships/day as of 2026-07-23.
  • China's official factory PMI was 49.0 in 2026-02 — still below the 50 line that separates growth from contraction.
  • China's exports were little changed in 2025-05, at 316.3 billion US$.
  • Taiwan's exports were down 4.6% month-over-month in 2026-06, to 74.8 billion US$.
  • South Korea's exports were down 1.5% month-over-month in 2025-05, to 57.2 billion US$.
  • Japan's industrial production index was little changed in 2026-03, at 102.0 index pts.
  • The US yield curve (10y − 3m) was 0.71 percentage points as of 2026-07-28 — not inverted.
  • The Sahm rule recession signal was 0.07 in 2026-06 — not triggered (threshold is 0.50).
  • The Global Supply Shock Index was 99/100 (Severe) for 2026-07.

Week of 20 Jul 2026

data as of 24 July 2026
  • Brent oil (monthly average) was down 20.6% month-over-month in 2026-06, to 85.4 $/barrel.
  • Brent oil (daily) is up 16.8% over the past week, to 87.0 $/barrel as of 2026-07-20.
  • Ships through the Strait of Hormuz are up 150.0% over the past week, to 15.0 ships/day as of 2026-07-19.
  • China's official factory PMI was 49.0 in 2026-02 — still below the 50 line that separates growth from contraction.
  • China's exports were little changed in 2025-05, at 316.3 billion US$.
  • Taiwan's exports were down 4.6% month-over-month in 2026-06, to 74.8 billion US$.
  • South Korea's exports were down 1.5% month-over-month in 2025-05, to 57.2 billion US$.
  • Japan's industrial production index was little changed in 2026-03, at 102.0 index pts.
  • The US yield curve (10y − 3m) was 0.73 percentage points as of 2026-07-24 — not inverted.
  • The Sahm rule recession signal was 0.07 in 2026-06 — not triggered (threshold is 0.50).
  • The Global Supply Shock Index was 99/100 (Severe) for 2026-07.

Week of 13 Jul 2026

data as of 17 July 2026
  • Brent oil (monthly average) was down 20.6% month-over-month in 2026-06, to 85.4 $/barrel.
  • Brent oil (daily) is up 19.1% over the past week, to 81.6 $/barrel as of 2026-07-13.
  • Ships through the Strait of Hormuz are down 61.5% over the past week, to 10.0 ships/day as of 2026-07-12.
  • China's official factory PMI was 49.0 in 2026-02 — still below the 50 line that separates growth from contraction.
  • China's exports were little changed in 2025-05, at 316.3 billion US$.
  • Taiwan's exports were down 4.6% month-over-month in 2026-06, to 74.8 billion US$.
  • South Korea's exports were down 1.5% month-over-month in 2025-05, to 57.2 billion US$.
  • Japan's industrial production index was little changed in 2026-03, at 102.0 index pts.
  • The US yield curve (10y − 3m) was 0.70 percentage points as of 2026-07-17 — not inverted.
  • The Sahm rule recession signal was 0.07 in 2026-06 — not triggered (threshold is 0.50).
  • The Global Supply Shock Index was 99/100 (Severe) for 2026-07.

Week of 6 Jul 2026

data as of 12 July 2026
  • Brent oil (monthly average) was down 20.6% month-over-month in 2026-06, to 85.4 $/barrel.
  • Ships through the Strait of Hormuz are down 61.5% over the past week, to 10.0 ships/day as of 2026-07-12.
  • China's official factory PMI was 49.0 in 2026-02 — still below the 50 line that separates growth from contraction.
  • China's exports were down 16.2% month-over-month in 2026-02, to 299.9 billion US$.
  • Taiwan's exports were down 4.6% month-over-month in 2026-06, to 74.8 billion US$.
  • The Global Supply Shock Index was 91/100 (Severe) for 2026-06.

Each line is a fixed template filled with real numbers — never AI-generated free text, never a forecast. Missing data means a line is simply left out, not guessed.